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Biden’s Hidden Advantage
Can a small but potent edge push Biden over the top?
“Demographics are destiny,” as the saying goes in American politics. The right fears this, and the left welcomes it.
While demographics aren’t everything, they are important. Researchers can predict your future voting patterns based on a few pieces of information with remarkable accuracy. Young, unmarried bisexual woman? Democrat. Old, white male in the south? Republican.
Cross-cutting cleavages and outliers remain, of course. But it is still remarkable how predictable our future voting patterns can be to a well-informed demographer.
Demographics change gradually, which is why I was surprised to learn some fascinating information about the upcoming 2020 election. Even compared with the 2016 election, the voting bloc that is headed to polls this fall will look different.
According to Pew, nonwhites will account for a third of the electorate, their largest share in history. In 2016, Trump managed to win just 8% and 28% of the black and latino vote, respectively.
Additionally, Generation Z (born after 1996) will account for about 10% of eligible voters. The slightly older Millennials are the second largest voting bloc — about 27% of the electorate. Trump is currently losing young people by a…
