How 2020 Isn’t 2016

The four key differences between this election and the last one.

“The polls were wrong then, and they’re wrong again now.” If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard this recently, I could have paid Trump’s $750 dollar federal tax bill.

Democrats shouldn’t blindly follow the polls. Polls aren’t perfect — pollsters will tell you that. Even scientific surveys with scrupulous sampling are just snapshots in time. Polls can only tell you how people view something a few days ago or last week. The predictive aspect of polling is less certain.

There are distinct differences this time around, however. This isn’t a repeat of 2016 in many respects.

1. Biden is up more — and more consistently — than Clinton was.

With just three weeks to go, Biden leads Trump nationally (although national polling means less than state polling in our weird, electoral college system.)

Let’s compare where Biden is vs. Trump and where Clinton was vs. Trump at the same time in their respective campaigns, courtesy of Real Clear Politics polling averages:

Today (Three weeks before the election):

Biden: +10.0