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The Race is Set
Historically, the two weeks before an election don’t matter.
The Trump campaign is in overdrive. The president is holding multiple rallies a day, hoping to cut into Biden’s lead just two weeks before voters issue their verdict.
There’s only one problem — the final two weeks don’t really matter. Historically, anyway. Let’s look at how much the polling average has changed in the fifteen days before an election, courtest of FiveThirtyEight.
(Year, Fifteen Days Before, Election Day, Change)
2016
Clinton +6.9, Clinton +3.8 (Change: 3.1)
2012
Romney +1.2, Obama +0.4 (Change 1.6)
2008
Obama +6.8, Obama +7.1 (Change 0.3)
2004
Bush +2.4, Bush +1.6 (Change 0.8)
2000
Bush +2.7, Bush +3.5 (Change 0.8)
1996
Clinton +14.9, Clinton +12.8 (Change 2.1)
1992
Clinton +14.1, Clinton +7.1 (Change 7.0)
1988
Bush +11.8, Bush +10.4 (Change 1.4)
1984
