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The Slow Death of Home-Field Advantage
The benefit of playing at home has never been smaller. What happened?
The N.F.L. season kicks off tonight, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans. Due to social distancing, the Chiefs will permit about 16,000 fans at Arrowhead Stadium, which is about 22% of the stadium’s capacity. The limited seating has led some to wonder how much home-field advantage there will be in 2020, as 26 of the league’s 32 clubs will not be permitting fans in the first week.
But what if home-field advantage pre-Covid-19 was overrated to begin with?
Last year, home teams in the N.F.L. won just 52% of their regular season games, the worst win rate since 1972 and the third lowest in the Super Bowl era. For comparison, home teams in the early 1990s won 60% of their games.
If you account for the point spread, it gets worse. Last season, home teams covered (winning by a larger margin than the point spread) in just 43.7% of games, the worst rate since at least 1966.
Home field being overvalued isn’t a recent phenomenon, either. In five of the last six years (and 13 of the past 16 years), home teams in the N.F.L. covered the spread in fewer than half the games.
